In other words: a bunch of different ingredients are coming together for a pretty impressive event tomorrow morning across Southern California. In addition, cold air wrapping into the system from Northern California will contribute to strong baroclinicity as this storms moves over Los Angeles. In this particular instance, this system has a fair amount of atmospheric moisture to work with as it interacts with the tail end of an atmospheric river that brought very heavy precipitation to the Northern California mountains on Friday. This jet configuration is highly favorable for the development and strengthening of low pressure systems near the California coast. This trajectory and relatively rapid cyclogenesis near the California coast is somewhat unusual, though it tends to be more common during strong El Niño years when a strong jet stream resides over or just south of Southern California. As the surface cyclone wraps up, a strong cold front will develop over the Southern California coastal waters–aided by some unusually cold air aloft becoming entrained into the broader circulation. This surface low is only just starting to become visible on the last couple of satellite frames from a couple of hours ago, but is expected to deepen rather quickly as it approaches the coast Sunday morning. An area of surface low pressure is rapidly developing this evening on the cyclonically-curved side of a locally-enhanced subtropical jet stream. The reason: instead of taking a long eastward trajectory over the Pacific Ocean–as so many systems destined for California do–this one is developing much closer to home: only 500 miles or so west of Santa Barbara. The present brief post discusses Southern California storm impacts on Sunday the latter (and longer) post on Monday morning will discuss impacts of El Niño to date and some thoughts regarding why they have been notably–though not fundamentally–different from those historically observed during big El Niño events.Ī pretty big storm is headed for Southern California this evening, yet the radar (and even satellite) imagery remains rather quiet at the moment. Please note: this post will be one of two over the next 48 hours. Rapidly-developing storm to bring impressive array of active weather to Southern California Current satellite imagery shows a rapidly developing surface low (with baroclinic leaf cloud) west of California.
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